I watched the WHO Live Broadcast on LinkedIn this week, and the WHO senior team looked exhausted as they explained how challenging they’d found the last year – with endless lockdowns and second, third and fourth waves; but I was thinking that at least they all still have their jobs, unlike millions of people working in the service sectors. A report out last month by the Asian Development Bank Institute found that 73% of households had experience a decline in income during the pandemic, with most reporting declines between 26% and 50% and at least one person in each household losing their job.
The restaurant, travel and leisure industries have been hit hardest, with many businesses managing to survive the first lockdown only to be forced out of business by the second or third lockdowns. Speaking to some local restaurant and bar owners, they explained that it was the uncertainty about the future that forced them to close their businesses – you can use cash reserves or bank loans to tide you over one lockdown, so long as you can be confident of a period of steady trade post-lockdown to replenish your reserves, but an unpredictable series of lockdowns creates an impossible challenge for many businesses.
We are more than a year into the COVID-19 pandemic and most countries are now on their second or third wave with several countries now entering their third or fourth lockdown, but despite the WHO’s 76 years of experience they have yet to give any reliable forecast of the path of the pandemic to help businesses to plan their recovery.
I’m not quite as old as the WHO, but perhaps my 45 years of working in public health management and food business operations will help me to predict the path of the pandemic in a way that may help businesses to plan. So, here’s my personal view of where we are heading and some suggestions for practical actions.
Covid-19 in 2022
The great vaccine roll-out of 2021 allowed some international travel to resume using Vaccine Passports, and the rate of serious illness has fallen in countries with effective vaccine programs, but reservoirs of the original strain of COVID-19 still exists in countries with limited vaccine programs, and new strains resistant to the first-generation vaccines are causing fifth and sixth waves. Annual vaccine booster-shots are on trial to combat the emerging strains – but their use is confined to the most developed countries – so they are only relevant for personal protection and to keep Vaccine Passports up to date.
COVID-fatigue is endemic and the anti-lockdown demonstrations have evolved into civil resistance, mask-burning parties and the deliberate flouting of public health controls. All the democratic governments in power at the height of the COVID pandemic have lost elections due to the economic impact of the way they managed the crisis. Selfishness amongst national governments continues to frustrate an effective global pandemic management program.
The high street is recovering, although food delivery has maintained an increased market share and new brands have emerged to replace the restaurants forced out of business by the lockdowns.
Recommendations for Food Businesses in 2022
1. Have a voice and be heard.
In those glorious, sunlit uplands of the pre-Covid days, governments would consult with businesses before introducing new legislation. Organizations like the NRA in the US and the BRC in the UK would have a seat on the committees developing new food safety regulations, and they would help to highlight any areas that may impact negatively on businesses and customers. Now, largely thanks to the media induced fear about COVID-19, Governments have seized the opportunity to wield ultimate power, with serious consequences for businesses, employees and customers.
The unspoken truth is that COVID-19 really is no worse than a bad flu epidemic – that is not meant to belittle the tragic impacts of COVID-19 on people’s lives, but is meant to highlight that in some years influenza can be a very serious disease. Those old enough to remember 1957 or 1968 will understand what I mean. Crucially, we had no social media in ’57 or ‘68 and governments were less prone to panic. We seem to forget that the primary reason for lockdowns is to prevent health services from being overloaded – but in 1968 the response was to tell people to not visit their doctor or hospital unless they were seriously ill, which is one alternative to a national lock-down that has much less impact on the economy.
I believe that if business organizations had been able to engage with governments in a productive dialogue, we could have found better ways to manage the pandemic than the slash and burn techniques used in 2020, but in the midst of the media-induced panic, any person trying to present a reasoned alternative to lockdowns was branded as a heretic and anyone uttering the ‘F-Word’ (influenza) was burned at the stake in the village square.
Now that the initial hysteria is dying down, and people are realizing that COVID is not the Zombie Apocalypse, I believe it’s time for businesses to engage more confidently with Governments by supporting industry groups with data about the true impact of ill-considered policies on the economy, their customers and their employees.
2. Design for Pandemics
COVID-19 is not going away soon, and the underlying factors that created the pandemic (wildlife trafficking and slaughter and/or laboratory experimentation on dangerous viruses) are still happening – so COVID-21 may be with us soon. Restaurants cannot continue to operate at 50% of designed seating capacity, hotels cannot operate at 30% occupancy rates – so we need food businesses designed to operate safely during a pandemic.
Such measures will also help when engaging with Governments to explain why it’s not always necessary to shut businesses down due to their failure to invest in health care.
A study by the CDC in October 2020 reported that the “epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 indicates that most infections are spread through close contact ….. primarily through respiratory droplet transmission within a short range (e.g., less than six feet). There is no evidence of efficient spread (i.e., routine, rapid spread) to people far away or who enter a space hours after an infectious person was there. However airborne spread over greater distances is possible under special circumstances”.
Circumstances under which airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 appears to have occurred include:
Enclosed spaces within which an infectious person either exposed susceptible people at the same time or to which susceptible people were exposed shortly after the infectious person had left the space.
Prolonged exposure to respiratory particles, often generated with expiratory exertion (e.g., shouting, singing, exercising) that increased the concentration of suspended respiratory droplets in the air space.
Inadequate ventilation or air handling that allowed a build-up of suspended small respiratory droplets and particles.
So, to protect customers whilst also operating a viable business, we need to design restaurants to minimise these risks whilst also maximizing use of expensive real estate.
1. Booth style seating areas – each ‘social bubble’ being separated from other customers by screens high enough to prevent the airspace being shared with adjoining tables
2. Improved ventilation – to remove suspended droplets from the air. Ventilation systems designed to ensure the airflow does not spread droplets from one table to another. A vertical airflow would be ideal, and airflows should be tested using colored smoke prior to re-opening
3. Separate seating area for delivery drivers/riders – delivery businesses will continue to be a major part of most food businesses, so we need space designed for the drivers/riders that is separate from the customer seating area and which includes washing facilities
4. Improved staff hygiene facilities – the drive to maximize seating has reduced the space allocated to the back of house operations, but to run a safe operation we need space for staff to change from outdoor clothing and wash hands before they enter the kitchen
5. Maintain use of masks for all staff – if we’re honest we always knew it was a good idea for food handling staff to wear masks, but except for high-care areas in food factories we never managed to enforce the rule. Maintaining this measure will reduce the chances of viral food poisoning as well as reducing the transmission of all respiratory diseases
6. No shouting/chanting/singing – some restaurants have their staff shout greetings or perform songs for the customers – this is now an unnecessary risk (and to be blunt it was always embarrassing for the staff, so just stop it anyway).
7. Improve sanitary facilities in dorms – many businesses have paid a high cost for providing inadequate sanitary facilities in workers accommodation. Investing in individual washrooms will provide a good return on the investment compared to having a business closed several times a year
I’ve been impressed by the way most food businesses have responded to the pandemic, but in my view they received little real benefit from their efforts due to the wholesale closure of business during lockdowns – but if we design operations to be pandemic-proof, engage with governments and continue to train staff in good practices, I believe we can operate safely throughout a pandemic without the ‘blunt instrument’ of economically damaging closures.